Dr. Nicholas Klingaman, Principal Research Fellow, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading, UK
Abstract: Sub-seasonal floods and droughts in Brazil threaten lives and damage infrastructure and agriculture. To protect lives and livelihoods, we must understand to what extent such extreme rainfall events can be predicted in existing forecast models, and whether there are situations under which these extremes may be more or less predictable. The DUBSTEP project -- part of the Newton Fund Climate Science for Services Partnership -- aims to evaluate sub-seasonal prediction skill for Brazilian rainfall, using data from the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) database, including prediction skill conditioned on the phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and the El Nino Southern Oscillation. The project also aims to understand the reasons why models lose skill at longer lead times, to inform model development. This talk will present initial results from the DUBSTEP project and discuss plans for Brazil-UK collaborations to improve sub-seasonal predictions.
DUBSTEP: Diagnosing and Understanding Brazilian Subseasonal Tropical and Extratropical Processes elton john | |
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| Science & Technology | Upload TimePublished on 29 Jan 2019 |
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